This year has been anything but typical when it comes to container volume patterns. Global supply chains have been heavily impacted by shifting tariffs, creating a whipsaw effect across major ports. The traditional pre–Chinese New Year surge was amplified as shippers rushed to move cargo out of China ahead of tariff deadlines. That urgency was quickly followed by a steep decline in volume as the U.S.–China trade war escalated, prompting ocean carriers to cancel scheduled sailings and reallocate capacity to more stable trade lanes.
Despite this volatility, drayage carriers can use key indicators to better plan for driver capacity and adjust pricing strategies. Container volume is not static—your pricing shouldn’t be either.
Below are some of the critical developments and how they may affect your business.
Key Trends to Watch and Their Business Impact
1. Steamship Line Blank Sailings
Ocean carriers continue to cancel scheduled sailings in response to softening demand. It’s important to understand:
Which services are being cut
Which ports of call are affected
Not all blank sailings are created equal. Skipped sailings on certain high-volume routes may have a much greater impact on container volume than others.
2. Transit Time Variability from Shanghai
Transit times differ significantly by destination region, and shifts in routing may impact delivery schedules and future driver planning:
Southern California (West Coast): 10–13 days
Gulf Coast +/-: 18 - 25 days (Panama Canal)
Northeast (East Coast) +/- : 34 days (Panama Canal) 45 days (Suez Canal)
Southeast (East Coast) +/- : 31 days (Panama Canal) 52 days (Suez Canal)
3. Extra Loaders / Increase Vessel Capacity
Carriers may announce additional sailings known as "extra loaders" or increase existing vessel capacity by swapping vessels to accommodate demand spikes. Key factors to track:
Which weeks these sailings are scheduled to load in Asia
Which ports these extra loaders are destined for
4. Manufacturing Lag in China
Production slowdowns are still affecting container flow. Many factories shut down temporarily, sending workers home. Restarting production and moving goods back to ports typically involves a 3–4 week lag.
5. Tariff Reprieve Window
A temporary pause in tariffs may offer short-term relief, but the longer-term outlook remains uncertain. If no trade agreement is reached before the 90-day reprieve ends, we could see a renewed disruption similar to what occurred in the spring. However, the overall effect might be more muted if consumer confidence weakens and holiday spending slows.
6. Warehouse Capacity
When warehouses are full, it often signals that customers have front-loaded inventory in anticipation of an upcoming event, which can lead to a slowdown in volume. Conversely, when warehouse space becomes available, it typically indicates that inventory is being depleted and volumes need to increase to replenish stock.
Strategic Planning in Uncertain Times Drives Pricing Decisions
In a volatile market, having the right information is critical. While there is no crystal ball to predict the exact trajectory of global trade, staying informed allows you to mitigate risk and take advantage of opportunities.
A stronger understanding of container volume trends is critical to making smart drayage pricing decisions. Pricing too low during periods of soft demand, only to move the load when volume picks up, can leave money on the table. Align your rates with anticipated market shifts to avoid missed opportunities.
Takeaway
By understanding these indicators and what it means closely, drayage providers can make smarter, faster decisions and stay ahead of the curve—even in a year filled with unpredictability.
Recommended Resources:
1.DrayInsight.com: Sign up for the newsletter to receive regular insights on drayage market conditions, pricing trends, and operational strategies.
2.TheLoadstar.com: Global shipping trends that impact drayage, including port delays, network designs, and motor carrier rate shifts to get ahead of changes in the market.
3. Steamship Line Websites Maersk.com, MSC.com, CMA-CGM.com: Use these sites to review vessel service schedules and deployment maps. These are critical for understanding asset positioning and potential service disruptions, which typically involve significant lead times and costs.
4.SupplyChainDive.com: Covers container volumes, intermodal market shifts, and port congestion. Useful articles for warehouse operators, with regular features on inventory levels, regional capacity changes, and infrastructure bottlenecks.
5.FreightWaves.com: Industry news and trends across all freight sectors.
Sign up for Dray Insight
A trusted resource for drayage, intermodal, and container logistics
