The temporary U.S.–China tariff reprieve is sending mixed signals through the supply chain. While ports are bracing for a short-term import surge, downstream volume remains uneven as retailers tread carefully. Los Angeles and Long Beach are already feeling the aftershocks of frontloading earlier this spring, with trucking demand softening even as new containers arrive. As one economist put it, “Without a long-term deal, we’re just waiting for the next hit.”
Headlines & Key Takeaways
Import volumes expected to rise in July under tariff reprieve
The NRF’s Global Port Tracker predicts a modest increase in U.S. container imports as shippers capitalize on the 90-day tariff pause. While some optimism has returned, overall volumes remain well below last year’s levels, and peak season planning remains subdued. Many retailers continue to hold excess inventory and remain cautious about restocking too early.🔗 Supply Chain Dive
Economists warn damage from trade policy is already baked in
Despite the short-term reprieve, economists believe tariffs have already dampened long-term investment in global sourcing. Without a more durable trade agreement, the uncertainty will continue to affect freight flows and capacity commitments across intermodal networks. 🔗 FreightWaves
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Deep Dive: Drayage Market Shifts & Policy Updates
Tariff Volumes & Trade Reactions
Los Angeles port volumes slow as pull-forward demand fades
Truckers serving the Port of LA report lower daily turns and more frequent dwell delays. As shipments pulled forward in May taper off, the drayage market is seeing early signs of a mid-summer lull. Several firms noted fewer spot quote requests and longer container availability windows. 🔗 Trucking Dive
Port leadership confirms container slowdown is tariff-driven
Port Director Gene Seroka cited “non-linear behavior” in cargo flow caused by shifting tariff guidance. While June saw relative stability, officials now expect a muted Q3 due to inventory overhang and global pricing pressure on goods shipped from China. 🔗 Trucking Info
Rail congestion rises as trans-shipment traffic grows
Backlogged empties in Southern California are colliding with a new wave of frontloaded imports, putting fresh strain on inland rail ramps. ITS Logistics’ June forecast notes rising dwell times, restricted depot windows, and more aggressive per diem enforcement—all signaling tighter equipment availability ahead of peak season. Trans-shipment delays in Asia are compounding the effect, with carriers redirecting volume and rates spiking sharply on Pacific corridors. IPI gateways like Chicago and Dallas may see congestion ripple effects by mid-July as volume moves inland under the tariff reprieve. 🔗 ITS Logistics
Tariff & Trade Policy Updates
U.S. and U.K. finalize a limited trade agreement
The deal eases steel and aluminum tariffs while expanding market access in agriculture and manufacturing. While not container-heavy, the agreement signals a trend toward targeted bilateral relief rather than multilateral reform. 🔗 Supply Chain Dive
White House prepares another round of tariff actions
New tariffs may target electric vehicles, green tech components, and select semiconductors. Lobbyists are already sounding alarms that these measures could destabilize price-sensitive sectors dependent on Chinese inputs. 🔗 TT News
Appliance tariffs now include finished goods
New trade measures extend to consumer-ready refrigerators, dishwashers, and washing machines. These changes could ripple downstream into chassis and trailer markets tied to major big-box retailer distribution. 🔗 Supply Chain Dive
Inside job suspected in $1.4M Nintendo Switch 2 theft. FreightWaves reports that organized theft at a Southern California yard may have involved insider access. The incident has renewed calls for better yard visibility, especially as consumer electronics freight rises. 🔗 FreightWaves
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady. The Fed chose not to raise rates this cycle, citing a cooling in goods inflation but persistent housing strength. Logistics sectors are watching closely for signs of softening consumer demand. 🔗 TT News
China’s COSCO eyes port acquisition tied to U.S. terminal footprint. Amid geopolitical tension, COSCO is reportedly negotiating to acquire part of CK Hutchison’s $19B port portfolio—raising concerns about foreign control of North American-linked terminals. 🔗 gCaptain
ONE sued over failure to honor contracted volumes. Ocean Network Express (ONE) faces an $18M lawsuit alleging contract breaches related to denied bookings. Shippers say the breakdown has affected downstream freight reliability and costs. 🔗 Loadstar
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